The 2024 Academy Awards are set to air this Sunday, March 10, and at an hour sooner than common: 7 p.m. EST/4 p.m. PST. And whereas Oppenheimer appears set to brush, there may be loads of room for surprises.
This yr’s Oscar nominations honor extremely regarded movies from world wide, performances that premiered in theaters and on streaming, and some of the most important films of the yr — together with the Barbenheimer double characteristic. It’s been a gradual crawl again from the hazy pandemic period, the place films that kinda sorta got here out in time gained Finest Image, however right here we’re, with a set of nominations that stands to be each predictable and electrifying.
How predictable? Right here is the total listing of 2024 Oscar nominations and who or what we expect may win. Or possibly much more enjoyable: who or what may shock with an upset.
Finest Image nominations and predictions
![Cillian Murphy holds his hand over his eye as he contemplates horrors in Oppenheimer.](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ctb4xWwjs4atTxrS4OL2akmonKc=/0x0:1536x864/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1536x864):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24807097/oppenheimer.jpg)
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Previous Lives
Poor Issues
The Zone of Curiosity
What is going to win? Hovering at “If something beats Oppenheimer, I’ll eat a shoe” ranges of confidence that Oppenheimer will win.
Who may upset? The Zone of Curiosity and Anatomy of a Fall made larger splashes than anticipated — may the expanded, extra worldwide voting base drive them to win? Neither really feel as zeitgeisty as Parasite, however you by no means know.
Finest Director
Justine Triet — Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Issues
Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Curiosity
Who will win? Nolan, as a make-up for not giving him 100 Oscars for Tenet (Oppenheimer is fairly good too).
Who may upset? There’s plenty of love for Glazer and his deeply unsettling imaginative and prescient for The Zone of Curiosity. If voters wished to interrupt up the love, they may hand Oppenheimer a Finest Image win and stiff Nolan in favor of the opposite British filmmaker.
Finest Actor
Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper — Maestro
Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo — Rustin
Who will win? This one feels tight, with Murphy and Giamatti selecting up a ton of reward from completely different voting our bodies over the season and Wright being a dark-horse favourite. However the influence of Oppenheimer throughout different classes — to not point out different awards exhibits just like the BAFTAs and the SAG Awards — provides Murphy the lead. No, it’s not truthful that he obtained to emote that arduous in IMAX.
Who may upset? If it’s not Murphy, it’s Giamatti. If it’s not Giamatti, it’s Murphy.
Finest Actress
![Ernest (Leonardo DiCaprio, in tan suit and cowboy hat) comforts his wife Mollie (Lily Gladstone) as she leans against him in front of a furniture-store window in Killers of the Flower Moon](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/B2DT3E16ceKlQV3r2qtQCWh8q9s=/0x0:3000x1336/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x1336):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25222152/MCDKIOF_PA011.jpg)
Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
Annette Bening — Nyad
Carey Mulligan — Maestro
Emma Stone — Poor Issues
Who will win? A detailed name between two Stones, however even with the season equally divided between them, I’m leaning towards Lily Gladstone, who enters the world with the aura of breakout power. Gladstone gained on the SAG Awards, however understand that all Academy members (not simply the actor voting physique) will weigh in on the actor classes.
Who may upset? Everybody thinks it’s a race between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone however I’d be careful for the worldwide love for Hüller.
Finest Supporting Actor
Sterling Okay. Brown — American Fiction
Ryan Gosling — Barbie
Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ruffalo — Poor Issues
Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer
Who will win? Ryan Gosling is glad to be there, however that is def going to Robert Downey Jr. for reminding us all he’s A Fairly Good Actor, Really.
Who may upset? If the cultural phenomenon of Barbie feels underrepresented on this yr’s ceremony, Gosling may come by means of with an upset.
Finest Supporting Actress
America Ferrera — Barbie
Danielle Brooks — The Shade Purple
Da’Vine Pleasure Randolph — The Holdovers
Jodie Foster — Nyad
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
Who will win? Da’Vine Pleasure Randolph has been sweeping this class at critics teams and greater award season stops, just like the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. Make investments now. Purchase, purchase, purchase!
Who may upset? Nyad scored nominations for each its primary actors, suggesting there’s nonetheless some love for these quaint star-driven automobiles. Having seen Foster kill it weekly on True Detective: Evening Nation may really give her some momentum right here.
Finest Authentic Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
Might December
Previous Lives
Who will win? The Holdovers has the stamp of approval from different classes, however I might not put it previous Anatomy of a Fall to get its large win right here. Individuals love the film!
Who may upset? Previous Lives solely scored two nominations — for Authentic Screenplay and frickin’ Finest Image. The film additionally gained large on the Impartial Spirit Awards. Voters might wish to couple the top-prize nom with this smaller class.
Finest Tailored Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Issues
The Zone of Web
Who will win? Oppenheimer may need the gasoline, however this is likely to be the place voters assume to reward Gerwig’s tackle a toy-based film, particularly since they snubbed her in director.
Who may upset? However even the Oppenheimer script has bizarre hype. Do you know Nolan wrote it in first individual?
Finest Worldwide Function Movie
![Several people stand in a walled garden with the towers of Auschwitz behind them in The Zone of Interest](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/60U-c9Ey0gziu73AphXufoz_jSw=/0x0:1920x1080/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1920x1080):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25158756/zone_of_interest.jpg)
Picture: A24
Io Capitano
Excellent Days
Society of the Snow
The Lecturers’ Lounge
The Zone of Curiosity
Who will win? The Zone of Curiosity. Having the film pop up in Finest Image is an indication a big share of the voting physique noticed and was enamored by Jonathan Glazer’s movie. If France had put Anatomy of a Fall up for Finest Worldwide Function Movie consideration as an alternative of The Style of Issues (an equally beloved movie that fell wanting a nom) then we’d have a decent race, however that is Zone’s to lose.
Who may upset? If someway Netflix threw sufficient cash behind Society of the Snow, J.A. Bayona’s haunting dramatization of the 1972 aircraft crash that left Uruguayan rugby footballers to outlive within the Andes for months, then possibly the movie may pull an All Quiet on the Western Entrance. However in all probability not.
Finest Animated Function Movie
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robotic Goals
Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse
Who will win? Many thought Hayao Miyazaki’s remaining movie may crack Finest Image. Didn’t occur — however second prize needs to be a win for The Boy and the Heron on this class.
Who may upset? Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse was an enormous hit and a sequel to earlier Finest Animated Function Movie winner. If Miyazaki’s complicated, usually summary animated drama didn’t resonate with the plenty within the voting physique, a top-tier popcorn flick may field it out. The class is likely to be one of many nearer calls of the night time.
Finest Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Issues
Who will win? A shock nom for the legendary Ed Lachman for his work on Pablo Larraín’s El Conde would possibly recommend a swell of curiosity within the under-the-radar movie, however in all probability not, and we must always all simply assume Oppenheimer is right here to dominate.
Who may upset? Rodrigo Prieto is having a killer yr — he shot each Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie. If Martin Scorsese’s and Greta Gerwig’s films are each going to return brief in a yr dominated by Oppenheimer, voters might throw Prieto a bone.
Finest Manufacturing Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Issues
Who will win? This one is a race between Barbie, a mega-popular hit, and Poor Issues, an award-season darling (and a modest hit in its personal proper). Poor Issues has a leg up right here, having gained on the Artwork Administrators Guild Awards, however with a bigger voting base on the wheel, I’m rolling the cube on Barbie, which gained’t be honored many different occasions.
Who may upset? Poor Issues. Simply!
Finest Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Issues
Who will win? This appears like one other toss-up between Poor Issues and Barbie, however the Academy does loves a interval piece, so going with the extravagance of Poor Issues this time round.
Who may upset? Oppenheimer has been making a push for visibility on this class in For Your Consideration-fueled commerce magazines. Arduous to think about the fits popping more durable than Barbie’s pink appears and Poor Issues’ fairy-tale robes, however don’t underestimate the facility of well-fitted pants.
Finest Hairstyling and Make-up
Picture: Jason McDonald/Netflix
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Issues
Society of the Snow
Who will win? Nosegate be damned, the quantity of labor from the Maestro make-up and hair workforce that went into reworking Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein goes to clinch this one for his mixed-reviewed Finest Image nominee.
Who may upset? Society of the Snow.
Finest Movie Enhancing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Issues
Who will win? Oppenheimer. Three hours? Two timelines? Cosmological dream sequences intercut between snappy dialogue sequences? Finest Enhancing is usually seen because the bellwether for Finest Image, so anticipate Tenet editor Jennifer Lame to select this up.
Who may upset? Killers of the Flower Moon or Anatomy of a Fall are two different movies with complicated narratives to weave collectively, however neither appears sturdy sufficient to displace the frontrunner in a one-off craft class.
Finest Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Inconceivable – Lifeless Reckoning Half One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Curiosity
Who will win? Oppenheimer surround-sound method to intimate dialog positions it effectively right here — additionally, it’s profitable virtually every part else. However…
Who may upset? There’s a sturdy argument that The Zone of Curiosity is as a lot a soundscape with visuals as a conventional shifting image. If sufficient individuals noticed Glazer’s movie in a theater, the place the horrifying combine actually pops, there’s cause to assume the movie may get the glory it deserves on Oscar day. Gamblers, take observe.
Finest Visible Results
![Two robot police officers, crouching in a tropical locale, aim shotguns in The Creator.](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3qDEGIT1ogkUf1xsxPY4ZCrKXeU=/0x0:4096x1460/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:4096x1460):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24957849/the_creator_r3_03074913.jpg)
Picture: twentieth Century Studios
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Inconceivable – Lifeless Reckoning Half One
Napoleon
Who will win? The Creator made waves earlier this yr for bringing a $200 million blockbuster sheen on a reported funds of $80 million. The ingenuity is a testomony to Gareth Edwards’ shoot-and-figure-it-out-in-post methodology, however much more so to the artists who crammed in his blanks. At a time when VFX homes are strained by mega-budgeted film producers who need a ton of do-overs, there’s an even bigger narrative at play that ought to assist The Creator.
Who may upset? Godzilla Minus One marks the primary time a Godzilla movie broke into the Oscars. Everybody loves this kaiju melodrama, and the movie being nominated needs to be a sign of its energy within the class. With out Oppenheimer to suck up the air, this can be a tight race.
Finest Authentic Music
“The Hearth Inside” from Flamin’ Scorching
“I’m Simply Ken” from Barbie
“It By no means Went Away” from American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Music for My Individuals)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For” from Barbie
Who will win? Barbie must win one thing, and Ryan Gosling is exhibiting as much as sing “I’m Simply Ken,” so let’s go along with that.
Who may upset? The one film that might defeat Barbie is Barbie. Individuals nonetheless love Oscar-winner Billie Eilish and “What Was I Made For” has a really actual likelihood to upset. My mother informed me the track makes her cry when she hears it on the radio, which makes me wish to reverse these predictions. Gonna be a detailed one.
Finest Authentic Rating
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Future
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Issues
Who will win? Ludwig Göransson, so scorching proper now. Nolan films, The Mandalorian, the Black Panther films… cool man. Oppenheimer has this unexpectedly muted class within the bag.
Who may upset? Dial of Future marks John Williams’ 54th Oscar nomination. He’s gained 5 occasions earlier than — may the Academy pivot from honoring newer blood like Göransson in favor of paying tribute to what’s possible a 92-year-old legend’s remaining movie?
Finest Documentary Function Movie
Bobi Wine: The Individuals’s President
The Everlasting Reminiscence
4 Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Who will win? The doc class was filled with surprises, however the well timed Ukraine conflict doc 20 Days in Mariupol ought to come out on high.
Who may upset? To Kill a Tiger is the little film that might on this class, providing up a narrative of familial resilience within the face of tragedy. Dev Patel and Mindy Kaling got here on board to govt produce, which can have given it a bump of visibility across the Oscar voting deadline.
Finest Documentary Brief Movie
The ABCs of Ebook Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Final Restore Store
Nai Nai & Wai Po
Who will win? The brief classes are at all times the hardest to foretell, even after you’ve seen them, however let’s go along with Nai Nai & Wai Po for Doc Brief. Director Sean Wang is on the rise — his debut characteristic Didi premiered at Sundance simply as his brief was nominated for the Oscar — and with visibility on Disney Plus, the lighthearted doc a couple of dancing grandma feels greater profile in a great way.
Who may upset? Political movies at all times play effectively with voters, and The ABCs of Ebook Banning feels just like the well timed alternative.
Finest Reside-Motion Brief Movie
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Purple, White, and Blue
The Fantastic Story of Henry Sugar
Who will win? Unfair to brief filmmakers that Wes Anderson is competing on this class, however he actually introduced the products with The Fantastic Story of Henry Sugar!
Who may upset? Netflix has given a powerful push to a different one in all its movies, The After, starring David Oyelowo. If sweetness goes down simpler than Anderson’s unique-but-not-for-everyone tone, we may very effectively see an upset.
Finest Animated Brief Movie
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-5 Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
Warfare Is Over! Impressed by the Music of John & Yoko
Who will win? Set in an alternate WWI, Warfare Is Over! Impressed by the Music of John & Yoko comes from Lenono Music, ElectroLeague, WetaFX, and Epic Video games and includes chess, service pigeons, and a reminder that conflict is dangerous. I requested Polygon author Joshua Rivera to inform me the way it was and he referred to as it “saccharine bullshit elevated from ignorant to offensive by launch timing.” That is positively going to win the Oscar.
Who may upset? All of the individuals I do know who love films and have seen the animated shorts appear to agree that Ninety-5 Senses, from co-directors Jerusha Hess (Austenland) and Jared Hess (Nacho Libre), pushes the animated kind in thrilling methods and will take residence the Oscar. Which suggests it’ll in all probability lose and Jared Hess can accept directing the Minecraft film. However, hey, possibly there’ll be a twist!